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In the 2019 cold year, household air conditioners were cold in the first year of operation. In July, production began to decline. All of them fell from double digits for three consecutive months from August to October, and October became the lowest point of annual air conditioner production. The overall industry is under pressure. However, when the data of the major air-conditioning enterprises in December was placed in front of them, they gave everyone an unexpected surprise.
According to relevant data, the total industrial production in December this year was 11.35 million units, which turned from a sharp decline to a positive growth. Although the growth rate was limited, the direction was greatly reversed, and the chain increased by nearly 38% in November.
Behind the rebound
The first is to sprint the full year goal. Especially for listed companies, this demand is more urgent in order to make the annual report more beautiful. At the beginning of the year, because of the high growth in 2017, many companies have higher targets in 2018. From the actual completion of current enterprises, it is difficult to achieve the goals.
Among the brand's scheduling data, especially the United States is the most eye-catching, and has set more than 4 million scheduling plans in a single month, reaching the level of full production in the peak season. Looking at the data of the US listed earnings report this year, the growth in the first half of the year was not bad, but the air conditioner growth in the third quarter was only 1%, which greatly reduced the annual growth rate. It is also a natural arrangement to sprint in the last month of the year. Objectively, the United States has greatly boosted the confidence of the overall industry.
The second is the cost factor. After entering 2018, the price of the entire bulk raw materials has been relatively stable, and it has stabilized. In the case of copper prices, the price of copper has dropped from the price of $7220.5/ton at the beginning of the year to around $6,200/ton at the end of November. Prices for other materials, including steel, have also fallen. Although it is very difficult to grasp the lowest point of bulk raw material prices, in general, it is now at a relatively low water level. Enterprises choose to do some inventory at this time, and they also have higher rationality.
The third is the stock preparation needs in the first quarter of 2019. Because the Spring Festival in 2019 is in early February, it indicates that the company will start from late January, at least until mid-February, and production will be affected in roughly one month. Therefore, it is common practice to prepare for production in advance in December. Judging from the production plans of major companies, the December production has increased in different degrees. Among them, the output of Oaks reached about 1 million units, and the good record of Double 11 gave it a high level of confidence.
The fourth is to complete environmental indicators. In the first half of the year, the production of R22 refrigerant products increased significantly due to the shortage of refrigeration oil. In order to complete the base year target sales of the Kigali Agreement, many companies will use the second half or the end of the year to allocate the production of each refrigerant, mainly to increase the number of R410a and R32 refrigerant air-conditioning products.
Focus on future risks
Although the higher production in December has reversed the downward trend to a certain extent, we still have to recognize the current reality. After all, the pressure of high stocks still exists and continues to increase, although the industry has begun to take the initiative. The process of the library, but the effect has not yet appeared. At the same time, the big macro environment is not optimistic, and the overall economic growth trend, especially the adjustment of real estate, is still deep.
Therefore, now there is a lot of pressure on air-conditioning dealers and some small and medium-sized air-conditioning brands that rely on loan production. In the face of high interest rates and repayment pressure, how should they choose?
In addition, the company's large-scale production has also disrupted the rhythm of the entire supply. Now the whole machine air conditioner manufacturer has begun to require upstream supporting enterprises to cut prices. It is reported that the price cuts are required to exceed 10%. Will these phenomena trigger a new shuffle in the industry? Will the "price war" be fully opened? These are all unknowns.
How will it go after December? Production and shipments in January and February 2019 are expected to be a large year-on-year decline. However, in general, after more than two years of rapid growth, the industry has entered a period of callback, and various resources have been reorganized. The heat is appropriately reduced, and the pace is slowing down. This is an acceptable result. This is also a good development for the future of the industry. necessary.
In the long run, air conditioners are still a product category with a large room for growth. Winter is coming, and spring is not far away!
Jiangsu Jincheng Engineering Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. has been focusing on the research, production and development of industrial air conditioners, hoping to lead industrial refrigeration. Jincheng Industrial Air Conditioning is favored by users because of its wide variety, wide variety, unique products and superior performance.
Jincheng Industrial Air Conditioner is made with strong performance and you can trust it!
